Tuesday, January 13, 2009
The Reserve Bank of Australia has been extremely aggressive in 2008, cutting 300bp in just 4 months. The last rate cut they made was in December when they slashed interest rates by a full percent. According to the RBA, monetary policy is now “expansionary” which suggests that they are almost done with cutting interest rates. The central bank has been extremely proactive and their efforts will be vital in helping to restore the Australian economy.
Like many of their international counterparts, Australia has combined monetary with fiscal stimulus. At most, we expect another 100bp of easing from the RBA next year. This will probably be in the first half of the year, which is when the economy could fall into recession. After that, watch out for a quick recovery for Australia in the second half of the year.
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