US CPI Falls By Record 1.7% in November

Tuesday, December 16, 2008

US CPI Falls By Record 1.7% in November, Housing Data Reflects Worst Readings Ever

The US dollar remains under pressure as the latest US economic data suggests that the Federal Reserve is very likely to cut rates this afternoon at 14:15 ET. First, inflation pressures in the US are clearly plummeting as evidenced by the record plunge of -1.7% in US CPI during the month of November, which brought the annual rate of growth down to match the December 1986 and June 2002 lows of 1.1% from 3.7%. Shifts in the core readings, which exclude food and energy, were not nearly as dramatic but the annual figure did cool to a 3-year low of 2.0%. Meanwhile, both US housing starts and building permits fell to their worst levels ever, as recordkeeping began in 1959 for the former and 1960 for the latter.

Overall, the data highlights the severity of the recession the US economy is experiencing, and a sharp drop in inflation that should allow the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to cut rates by at least 50bps to 0.50% today.

US Consumer Price Index (Year-over-Year)



















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