Dollar Falls Against The Yen in Night Trading

Thursday, December 18, 2008

Dollar trades lower versus the yen in trading late Thursday night

The dollar was lower against the Japanese yen late Thursday night. The greenback slipped to 89.16 yen from the 89.42 yen it bought in late afternoon trading.

On Wednesday, the dollar was worth 87.96 yen.

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What Is Gaps?

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Gaps in the technical analysis are named interruptions between close and open prices visualized in bar charts and candlesticks charts. Such a way, an opening outside the previous day's or other period's range generates a price gap.

There are four types of gaps: common, breakaway, runaway, and exhaustion. It is commonly believed that "Gaps must be filled." as a result of the price reversal just after a gap Formation. Hence, the time of gap filling may be essentially different for different types of gaps.

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US CPI Falls By Record 1.7% in November

Tuesday, December 16, 2008

US CPI Falls By Record 1.7% in November, Housing Data Reflects Worst Readings Ever

The US dollar remains under pressure as the latest US economic data suggests that the Federal Reserve is very likely to cut rates this afternoon at 14:15 ET. First, inflation pressures in the US are clearly plummeting as evidenced by the record plunge of -1.7% in US CPI during the month of November, which brought the annual rate of growth down to match the December 1986 and June 2002 lows of 1.1% from 3.7%. Shifts in the core readings, which exclude food and energy, were not nearly as dramatic but the annual figure did cool to a 3-year low of 2.0%. Meanwhile, both US housing starts and building permits fell to their worst levels ever, as recordkeeping began in 1959 for the former and 1960 for the latter.

Overall, the data highlights the severity of the recession the US economy is experiencing, and a sharp drop in inflation that should allow the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to cut rates by at least 50bps to 0.50% today.

US Consumer Price Index (Year-over-Year)



















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Titan Machinery Inc. Announces Fiscal Third Quarter 2009 Results

Monday, December 15, 2008

-The Company raises full year fiscal 2009 revenue and earnings guidance- -Third quarter revenue increased 62% to $214 million- -Third quarter pre-tax income grew to $13.9 million- -Company completed two acquisitions during the quarter-

Titan Machinery Inc. (Nasdaq:TITN - News), a leading network of full service agricultural and construction equipment stores, today reported financial results for the third quarter and nine-month period ended October 31, 2008.

For the third quarter of fiscal 2009, revenue increased to $214.0 million from revenue of $132.2 million in the third quarter of the prior year. All three of the Company’s main revenue sources - equipment, parts and service - contributed to this period-over-period revenue growth. Equipment sales were $168.0 million, compared to $103.4 million in the same period last year. Parts sales were $29.8 million in the third quarter, up from $18.4 million in the prior-year period. Revenue generated from service improved to $12.9 million in the quarter, compared to $7.9 million in the third quarter of last year.

Gross profit for the fiscal third quarter increased to $37.3 million, compared to $20.4 million in the third quarter of the prior year. The Company's gross profit margin was 17.5% in the fiscal third quarter, compared to 15.4% in the third quarter of fiscal 2008 reflecting the strong market we are experiencing. Gross profit from parts and service revenue contributed 46% of overall gross profit for fiscal third quarter 2008 compared to 48% in the third quarter last year.

Operating income for the fiscal third quarter increased to $14.2 million compared to $6.0 million in the same period a year ago. Pre-tax income for the fiscal third quarter increased to $13.9 million, compared to $4.5 million in the same period last year. Pre-tax margin was 6.5% for fiscal third quarter 2009, compared to 3.4% in the third quarter last year.

Net income for the fiscal third quarter was $8.2 million, compared to net income of $2.7 million in the third quarter last year. After giving effect to the increase in share count to 18,041,197 million shares from 7,675,831 million shares due to the Company’s initial public offering in December 2007 and its May 2008 follow-on offering, earnings per diluted share were $0.45 per share in the current quarter as compared to $0.36 per share, for the third quarter last year.

For the nine month period ended October 31, 2008, revenue increased to $501.4 million from $297.8 million for the same period last year. Net income for the first nine months of fiscal 2009 was $14.9 million, or $0.91 per diluted share, compared to $4.9 million, or $0.72 per diluted share, in the same period last year.

“We are pleased with our performance in the third quarter and first nine months of fiscal 2009, and based on our stronger than anticipated financial results, we are again raising our full-year outlook,” said David Meyer, Titan Machinery’s Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. “We increased both our revenue and gross profit from all three of our revenue sources—equipment, parts, and service. Our revenue growth benefitted from the continuation of the robust agriculture economy, as well as our organic and acquired growth. During the third quarter we improved our gross margins from 15.4% to 17.5% and our pre-tax margins from 3.4% to 6.5% to create strong earnings growth.

Mr. Meyer continued, “Looking forward, we remain confident in our long-term growth opportunities. We continue to see an excellent pipeline of acquisition candidates as well as organic growth opportunities. Importantly, our newly acquired stores are performing very well, as we are continuing our strong track record of retaining acquired store employees and customer relationships while implementing the Titan operating model.”

Acquisitions

The Company closed two acquisitions in the third quarter fiscal 2009, consisting of four stores with historical revenues of $63.0 million.

Wolf’s Farm Equipment, Inc., with one store in Kintyre, North Dakota, is a farm equipment dealership selling the New Holland brand. Wolf’s Farm Equipment reported revenues of approximately $3.0 million in its most recent fiscal year ended December 31, 2007. This New Holland Dealership is strategically located between the Company’s Jamestown, Wishek, and Mandan, North Dakota stores.

Pioneer Garage, Inc., with three stores in South Dakota, is a farm equipment dealership selling the Case IH and New Holland brands. Pioneer Garage has Case IH and New Holland dealerships in Pierre and Highmore, South Dakota, and a New Holland dealership in Miller, South Dakota. Pioneer Garage reported revenues of $60.0 million in its most recent fiscal year ended September 30, 2008. The three locations are contiguous to the existing Titan Machinery stores in Huron and Redfield.

Outlook

The Company evaluates its financial performance based on its customers’ annual production cycles as opposed to a quarterly basis, due to weather fluctuations and the seasonal nature of the Company’s business. Based on better than anticipated third quarter results and increased growth expected in the fourth quarter, the Company is raising its revenue outlook for the full year ending January 31, 2009 to a range of $635 million to $675 million, compared to previously issued guidance of $590 million to $635 million. The Company is also raising its fiscal year ending January 31, 2009 EPS guidance to a range of $1.07 to $1.11 from a range of $0.89 to $0.94. Weighted average diluted shares outstanding for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ending January 31, 2009 are expected to be approximately 18.1 million and 16.8 million, respectively.
Conference Call and Powerpoint Presentation Information
A copy of the presentation that will accompany the prepared remarks from the conference call is available on the Company’s website under investor relations at www.titanmachinery.com.

The Company will host a conference call and audio webcast today at 3:30 p.m. Central time (4:30 p.m. Eastern time). Investors interested in participating in the live call can dial (800) 762-8779 from the U.S. International callers can dial (480) 629-9041. A telephone replay will be available approximately two hours after the call concludes and will be available through Monday, December 29, 2008, by dialing (800) 406-7325 from the U.S., or (303) 590-3030 from international locations, and entering confirmation code 3947934. There also will be a simultaneous, live webcast available on the Investor Relations section of the Company's web site at www.titanmachinery.com. The webcast will be archived for 30 days.

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Obama Stimulus Could Reach $1 Trillion

Sunday, December 14, 2008

President-elect Barack Obama's team is considering a plan to boost the recession-hit U.S. economy that could be far larger than previous estimates and might reach $1 trillion over two years, the Wall Street Journal reported on Saturday.
Obama aides, who were considering a half-trillion dollar package two weeks ago, now consider $600 billion over two years "a very low-end estimate," the newspaper said, citing an unidentified person familiar with the matter.

The final size of the stimulus was expected to be significantly higher, possibly between $700 billion and $1 trillion over that period, it said, given the deteriorating state of the U.S. economy.

Officials with Obama's camp have declined to comment on media reports about the size of the boost his administration might seek to give the economy through increased public spending and tax cuts.
Obama is due to take office on January 20.
Battered stock market investors around the world have taken heart from previous indications of how Obama's administration may seek to kickstart growth in the world's largest economy.

Obama has promised he will launch a massive public works program to help lift the U.S. economy out of recession.
The president-elect is likely to be briefed by his aides on the outline of the stimulus plan next week with a view to getting it passed by Congress by the time he is sworn in next month, the Journal said.
Economists have previously said they expect Obama to quickly sign a multi-year spending package that could be worth up to $750 billion, or almost 5 percent of U.S. gross domestic product.
The administration of President George W. Bush has been given authority by Congress to spend up to $700 billion in taxpayer money to rescue the nation's banking system.
The money was originally set aside to buy up toxic mortgage-backed securities but is now being used to recapitalize banks and induce them to lend more freely.

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Obama: Transportation Can Get Economy Moving

Friday, December 12, 2008

Obama sees change in transportation priorities as a vehicle to boost economy, clear air


When President-elect Barack Obama says he wants to get the economy moving again, he means it quite literally.

Transportation will play a central role in Obama's first months in office, not just for policy changes aimed at improving highway, air and rail travel, but as a road toward economic recovery, energy independence and environmental protection.

Solve road congestion, Obama's reasoning goes, and you put people to work.

Use less gasoline and help clean the air.

Build better trains and move goods more efficiently.

Get people out of their cars and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

"We will create millions of jobs," he said recently, "by making the single largest new investment in our national infrastructure since the creation of the federal highway system in the 1950s."

This expansive approach contrasts with the Bush administration's policy that transportation -- like other government functions -- works best when it is in private hands, or at least in a public-private partnership.

Adopting a libertarian, smaller-government-is-better approach to repairing and modernizing the nation's transportation systems, Bush sought to shift more responsibility to state and local governments and encouraged the use of tolls and private enterprise to pay for it.

Obama is not necessarily against such arrangements. He just thinks the national government should play the leading role in a transportation network on which the country and its economy depends.

"Now is the time to invest in our future and strengthen our core infrastructure," Obama said in an October letter to a coalition of groups interested in transportation and environmental issues. "With unemployment rising, these investments are even more important."

Obama takes office as many critical transportation issues are coming to the fore, creating what some experts see as a once-in-a-generation opportunity to remake national policy.

"What's very hopeful about this president, when it comes to infrastructure, is he's prepared to think big," said Janet Kavinoky, chief transportation lobbyist for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. She said there is broad political support for major changes in transportation policy.

Obama's transition team is working with congressional Democrats on an economic aid bill that could total as much as $500 billion. The hope is to have it ready for the new president to sign when he takes office Jan. 20.

While details have not been finalized, the bill is expected to include tens of billions of dollars for highway, mass transit, airport, and intercity passenger and freight rail improvements.

Bush's transportation philosophy "seemed to be, 'This is what the federal government should be responsible for and nothing else.' And the 'nothing else' category was public transportation," said William Millar, executive director of the American Public Transportation Association, whose members include transit agencies.

Obama, on the other hand, has described himself as a strong advocate of mass transit.

While Bush proposed what some lawmakers described as "starvation budgets" for Amtrak, Obama has pledged support for the passenger rail carrier and for developing a national network of high-speed passenger trains.

The Bush administration has feuded bitterly with air traffic controllers since the Federal Aviation Administration imposed a contract in 2006. Obama has promised to appoint an FAA administrator who will work cooperatively with controllers.

Bush tried to ease cross-border trucking between the U.S. and Mexico, angering domestic truckers who fear the competition and say safety would be compromised. Obama promised the International Brotherhood of Teamsters to aggressively inspect cross-border trucks and buses and enforce safety regulations.

Obama's transportation goals face several potential roadblocks.

The federal program that provides aid to states for highway construction and transit expenses expires on Sept. 30. The current program was funded at $286 billion over five years. Its cost is mainly underwritten by the federal 18.4 cents-per-gallon gas tax, but revenues have failed to keep up with obligations.

Last January, a blue-ribbon transportation commission recommended increasing the gas tax as much as 40 cents a gallon over five years. The additional money would help cover the federal share of an estimated $225 billion the commission says is needed each year to upgrade transportation systems.

Boosting the gas tax carries political risks. The last time it was raised, a backlash against Democrats in the 1994 elections helped Republicans capture control of the House and Senate. Obama has expressed concern about raising taxes in the current economic climate.

Even without an increase, Obama will have to deal with environmentalists who want to undo a bargain struck during the Reagan administration that funnels roughly 80 percent of gas tax revenue to highway projects and 15 percent to transit. They want to redirect money away from highways to alternatives such as transit and intercity passenger trains.

Obama's energy plan calls for saving as much oil as the U.S. currently imports from the Middle East and Venezuela within 10 years, which is about 3.5 million barrels a day.

"That's going to require a pretty robust program to save oil, which means not just better vehicle technology and not just alternative fuels. ... Something will have to be done about transportation policy," said Deron Lovaas of the Natural Resources Defense Council.

"The question is, does it make sense if energy security is an overarching national commitment to stick to ... a 25-year-old deal?" Lovaas said. "I think the answer is, 'No.' That's going to be an enormous fight."

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Mexico Wants to Shrink Coins to Save a Few Cents

Friday, December 5, 2008

Does it feel like your money is shrinking nowadays? In some countries around the world, it really is getting smaller.


Mexico, following the lead of several countries around the world, has proposed making coins smaller and using cheaper metals to keep cost low amid the financial crisis and volatile metal costs.

The Mexican Senate on Thursday approved President Felipe Calderon's bill to modify the country's coinage. The plan awaits approval from the lower house of Congress, which will vote in February.

"We're being hit hard economically, so we're looking to spend more efficiently," said Enrique Lobato, director of cash programming for Mexico's central bank.

The Mexican economy is running a 1.8 percent budget deficit, the country's first in years, and next year's 3 trillion peso ($224 billion) budget will be tight.

Lobato said under Calderon's proposal, the bank could save around 200 million pesos (US$14.7 million) per year in production costs.

Total production costs on coins this year reached nearly 1 billion pesos (US$73.5 million,) he said. Costs include the price of metals and minting the coins. The bank produces around 1.5 billion coins each year.

Mexico has eight kinds of coins in the following amounts: 5, 10, 20 and 50 cents, and 1, 2, 5 and 10 pesos. The plan, if approved, would shrink the size of the four smaller coins, and reduce the amounts of copper, zinc and nickel alloys in each of the peso coins, as well as in the 20 and 50 cent coins.

In Mexico, the use of coins has grown by about 6 percent annually, the government says. Around 20 billion coins are in circulation.

Many countries have done the same to cut costs in their moneymaking.

Australia and New Zealand recently eliminated their 1 and 5 cent coins, and New Zealand in 2006 significantly reduced the size of its 10, 20 and 50 cent coins.

In the United States, the U.S. Mint is lobbying Congress to make the penny more cost-effective. The 1-cent copper-colored disc now costs 1.2 cents to produce.

Countries often will change coin production when inflation and metal prices alter coins' value and cost-effectiveness, said Francois Velde, a senior economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

"This most likely happens in times of high inflation, of sharp currency devaluation or in times of high commodities prices," he said. "The lowest denominations are typically hit first, because inflation eats away at their real value."

Mexico's annual inflation hit a seven-year high of 6.2 percent in the first two weeks of November, and the peso has tumbled more than 30 percent against the U.S. dollar since Aug. 1.

Base metal prices, including copper and aluminum, had hit record highs this year, but have fallen nearly 60 percent from 2007 levels. Nickel has dropped 80 percent.

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